SpaceX-Tesla Merger Won’t Save TSLA Investors, Analysts Warn

SpaceX stock has cratered 25% since its June IPO, its debt market is flashing red, and Tesla (TSLA) closed at $407.76 on July 10, 2026, up 0.30% (+$1.21) from the prior close of $406.55. Because markets were closed for the weekend, that print is the last session’s close — no pre-market or intraday moves. Meanwhile, top analysts warn that even a SpaceX-Tesla merger wouldn’t save Tesla investors.

SpaceX Stock Cratered 25%, Debt Market Flashes Red

SpaceX shares have fallen 25% since the June IPO, a selloff driven by the widening gap between its trillion-dollar valuation and deep business losses.^[Forbes Per the New York Times, equity investors are betting on CEO Elon Musk’s credibility, giving the company a $1.8 trillion valuation, but its actual operations — burning billions — are spooking creditors.^[Forbes

SpaceX’s debt market is especially alarming. The company carries investment-grade (Baa1/BBB+/BBB) bonds, but they’re now trading like junk.^[Forbes According to Forbes, post-IPO events — including a $60 billion acquisition and a $25 billion bond issuance now trading like junk — have deepened investor skepticism.^[Forbes

Business Lines Diverge: Starlink Cash Cow, AI and Launch Burn Cash

SpaceX consists of three largely unrelated businesses — one profitable but declining, the other two burning through cash, likely for the long haul.^[Forbes Per the company’s IPO prospectus, SpaceX’s Connectivity segment — which runs Starlink — generated $11.387 billion in revenue (61% of total) and $4.423 billion in operating profit in 2025.^[Forbes

Yet despite 10.3 million subscribers in Q1 2026, average revenue per user (ARPU) has fallen by a third, from $99/month in 2023 to $66/month in Q1 2026.^[Forbes Starlink is being forced to subsidize the money-losing Space and AI divisions, while Musk holds 85% voting control and is targeting massive bonuses tied to colonizing Mars.^[Forbes

Wall Street Split Wide: Targets From Down 23% to Up 433%

Wall Street analysts are far from a consensus on where SpaceX stock is headed.^[Forbes CFRA’s price target — citing risks that SpaceX may fail to generate Starship revenue, space-based AI data centers, or profits from its chatbot xAI and former Twitter (X) — implies the stock could fall another 23%.^[Forbes

Raymond James, by contrast, sees a total addressable market of $30 trillion — $1.5 trillion more than Musk’s own estimate — and expects SpaceX stock to surge 433%.^[Forbes MoffettNathanson’s Julie Zhu explained on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” why she’s neutral on SpaceX, calling it a difficult company to value.^[CNBC

Tesla Edges Up, Musk Postpones First TV Interview

Tesla (TSLA) closed at $407.76 on July 10, 2026, up 0.30% (+$1.21) from the prior close of $406.55. The session opened at $410.49, hit a high of $413.16, and a low of $402.81. With markets closed for the weekend, the quote is locked at the last session’s close — no pre-market or intraday changes.^[CNN

Separately, CNBC reported that Elon Musk postponed his first TV interview since SpaceX went public.^[CNBC Musk also responded to a post on X about MacKenzie Scott donating over $26.3 billion with “Sadly, yes,” continuing his long-running skepticism of charitable giving.^[Yahoo

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