ThesisMemo Research
WASDE: yields matter, but ending stocks decide the balance
The September crop update is ahead. Read supply and demand revisions together.
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ThesisMemo Research
Silver is not simply a smaller gold trade
Industrial demand and investment demand create different sensitivities to the same macro news.
ThesisMemo Research
Copper’s demand story is bigger than one theme
Power infrastructure matters, but so do construction, manufacturing and recycled supply.
ThesisMemo Research
Gas storage: a national build hides regional draws
The latest storage increase was not uniform. Regional balances deserve a closer look.
ThesisMemo Research
Oil risk needs a physical supply test
Separate a risk premium from barrels actually lost. Inventories and spare capacity change the outcome.
ThesisMemo Research
Gold: the dollar, yields and safety can disagree
A haven narrative alone is incomplete. Track the opportunity cost of holding gold too.
ThesisMemo Research
PPI, then CPI: two tests before the Fed
September 10–11 brings producer and consumer inflation. Prepare scenarios, not predictions.
ThesisMemo Research
Job openings need to turn into actual hiring
Vacancies, hires and quits describe different parts of the labor market. Watch the conversion.
ThesisMemo Research
Spending rose; purchasing volume barely moved
Nominal sales are not the same as real demand. The distinction matters for earnings.
ThesisMemo Research
July PCE inflation: monthly pace versus annual pressure
The pace and the level tell different stories. Neither should be read in isolation.
ThesisMemo Research
The Fed’s next decision runs through inflation
Waller left both a hold and a hike on the table. The condition matters more than the headline.
ThesisMemo Research
162,000 jobs: resilience is not a rate decision
August payrolls improved, but employment composition and inflation still matter for the policy response.