ThesisMemo Research
The softer hiring estimate pulled Treasury yields from recent highs, but elevated energy prices leave the policy interpretation unusually difficult.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 52,000 for the first time ever Monday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced back sharply from last week's tech selloff. Tesla surged 8.46%, Alphabet made its Dow debut up 4.7%, and VIX slid to 17.65. June jobs data hits Thursday before Friday's…
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JPMorgan raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,800, citing U.S.–Iran peace progress and AI earnings momentum — while warning that speculative trading in second-tier AI names raises the odds of a flash crash.
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A wall-to-wall week for U.S. labor data. The June jobs report gets pulled forward to Thursday, July 2 — ahead of the July 4th holiday — with consensus pegging payrolls at +172K.
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June's preliminary came in at 48.9 — up ~9% MoM and above the ~46.1 consensus — as falling gas prices gave consumers a lift. The final drops today; watch whether the rebound holds and where inflation expectations land.
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Thursday packs in May PCE, the Q1 GDP final revision, May durable goods orders, and Darden (DRI) Q4 earnings — a full slate as markets reprice Fed rate hike odds. Wells Fargo expects headline PCE at +0.5% MoM and +4.1% YoY, with core PCE at +0.3%.
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Bank of America reversed course in a June 22 note, calling for three Fed rate hikes in 2026 — September, October, and December, each 25bp — pushing rates to 4.25%–4.50%. Sticky inflation, resilient jobs, and rising energy prices drove the pivot.
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A semiconductor rout that started in South Korea swept Wall Street on June 23, sending the Nasdaq down 2.21% and the SOX cratering 7.9%. AI spending fears and rising rate-hike bets drove investors to dump chip stocks and pile into defensives.
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South Korea's KOSPI crashed nearly 10% on June 23, with memory chip giants leading the rout. The selloff spread to Wall Street by the close — the SOX fell 7.9%, while Micron, Western Digital, and SanDisk all dropped double digits intraday.
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A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent below $80 and WTI to ~$76. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield hit ~4.5% and markets are pricing a ~50% chance of a September Fed rate hike.
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Markets return from a long weekend with a packed schedule: FedEx reports Tuesday after the close, Micron follows Wednesday, and Friday's May PCE reading lands as the Fed's hawkish lean keeps rate expectations in focus.
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WTI crude slid back to around $77 a barrel last week, posting an 8% weekly loss as Middle East tensions eased. The divergent playbook: lower oil typically pressures energy producers while offering relief on airline fuel costs.