SMCI Gets a Rare Mea Culpa Upgrade From a Former Bear — But the Stock Still Can’t Catch a Bid

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed at $30.10 on Friday, July 24, 2026, down 3.53% (-$1.10) from the prior day's close of $31.20, with an intraday low of $29.275. With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, that print represents the last trade. Against this backdrop of persistent pressure, a long-time bearish analyst issued a rare report publicly admitting "I Was Wrong" and upgrading SMCI from Sell to Buy — a dramatic reversal that has become the focal point of market chatter.^{[Seeking Alpha]}

Analyst Mea Culpa: From Bear to Bull

In a report titled "I Was Wrong About Super Micro Computer (Rating Upgrade)," the analyst detailed the reasoning behind his flip. He noted that SMCI has now fallen more than 51% from its all-time high of roughly $225 on June 16, 2026 — a drawdown that closely mirrors the typical 55% maximum decline seen in historical IPO stocks. In his view, such deep pullbacks often signal long-term buying opportunities.^{[Seeking Alpha]}

The report further noted that SMCI currently trades at roughly a 15% discount to its IPO price. Technically, the stock is showing initial support near $111, with $102 viewed as a key historical buy zone and $120 as a recent confirmation level. Despite ongoing selling pressure and an upcoming lockup expiration, the analyst believes the selloff has largely priced in supply risks, while major Wall Street banks — such as Morgan Stanley with its $300 price target — remain bullish.^{[Seeking Alpha]}

Semiconductor Split: TSM Gets Consensus Buy, Intel Rides AI Wave

While SMCI got its upgrade, other semiconductor heavyweights sent different signals. According to MarketBeat, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) received a consensus "Buy" rating from multiple brokerages, reflecting confidence in its leadership in advanced process nodes and AI chip manufacturing.^[MarketBeat] Separately, Perseverance Asset Management International reported holding roughly $150.90 million in TSM shares at the end of Q2 2026, signaling continued institutional allocation.^[MarketBeat]

Intel (INTC) also got a boost from strong guidance. Per Reuters, Intel shares rose after its earnings report, with the upbeat forecast signaling that AI is fueling its turnaround.^[Reuters] That stands in contrast to SMCI: despite being deeply involved in the AI server market, its stock performance has lagged badly, reflecting investor concerns about rising competition and margin pressure.

Copper ETF and SpaceX: Alternative Opportunities

Elsewhere in the market, other asset classes are showing interesting moves. A Seeking Alpha analyst noted that the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is now trading 23.1% below its 2026 high, even as copper futures remain near peak levels. The analyst sees operating leverage opportunity in the lagging miners versus the metal, giving COPX a Buy rating while flagging China's slowing growth and rising inventories as key risks.^{[Seeking Alpha]}

SpaceX (SPCX) has also gone from darling to distressed. After hitting a high above $225 shortly after its June 16 IPO, the stock has fallen to around $110 — a decline of more than 50%. Analyst Mike Zaccardi upgraded it to Buy, arguing that historical IPO drawdown patterns suggest an attractive long-term entry, and flagging the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report on August 4 as a potential "clearing event."^{[Seeking Alpha]}

Market Reaction and What’s Next

Despite the bullish upgrade, SMCI still closed lower on Friday, July 24, suggesting the market hasn't fully bought in — or that investors are weighing other headwinds. CNBC's midday market briefing on that day did not mention SMCI specifically, but the overall tone was cautious.^[CNBC]

For SMCI, the path ahead hinges on several factors: whether upcoming earnings confirm sustained AI server demand; how effectively the company manages its supply chain and margins; and the broader macro environment's impact on tech valuations. The analyst's upgrade gives the bears a reason to reconsider, but the stock's ultimate direction will be decided by future results and market sentiment.

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