ThesisMemo Research
Oil edges lower but Brent remains near $95 as geopolitical risk stays elevated
Crude eased in early Thursday trading after recent gains, offering limited relief to markets still focused on inflation and supply risk.
OIL
News
WTI Crude Drops Below $70, Brent Hits Pre-War Low as Hormuz Strait Opens Up
Oil prices sold off sharply on June 24: WTI crude settled at $70.34/bbl (−3.92%), briefly dipping below $70 for the first time since March 2, while Brent fell 4.3% to $73.74 — its lowest close since before the February Middle East escalation. Improving tanker transit through the Strait…
News
US-Iran Deal Tanks Oil Prices as 10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4.5%
A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent below $80 and WTI to ~$76. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield hit ~4.5% and markets are pricing a ~50% chance of a September Fed rate hike.
News
Oil Drops, Gold Climbs: Citi Cuts Brent Forecasts as US-Iran Deal Clears Hormuz
Citi slashed its Brent crude forecasts after the US-Iran framework deal pointed to Strait of Hormuz reopening — but gold rallied for a third straight session, with markets focused on easing inflation expectations rather than fading safe-haven demand.
News
Trump Says U.S.-Iran Deal Is Coming — Oil Drops More Than 2%
Trump called off a planned strike on Iran and told reporters a peace deal is "essentially done." WTI tumbled more than 2% to $87.71, and Brent fell roughly 3% to $90.38 — erasing weeks of geopolitical risk premium in a single session.
News
WTI Drops 4%: Which Big Oil Stock Gets Hit Hardest — XOM, CVX, OXY, or COP?
Iran diplomacy headlines knocked WTI down 4% and Brent nearly 5%, ending the cleanest two-week energy trade of the year. The easy money is gone — now it's about figuring out who gives back the most before the next entry point.
News
One Diplomatic Headline Sends WTI Down 4%
A weekend media blitz on US-Iran backchannel talks wiped out two weeks of geopolitical risk premium in a single holiday session. Energy stocks are on the back foot; airlines, freight, and long-duration tech are catching a tailwind.
News
U.S. Stock Futures Climb as Iran Diplomacy Signals Ease Middle East Risk Premium
U.S. equity futures rallied across the board on Memorial Day as weekend reports of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic framework sent WTI crude tumbling more than 4% — unwinding two weeks of built-up Middle East risk premium in a single holiday session.
MACRO
Daily Macro 5/18: WTI Hits $103, Warsh Confirmed, CPI Re-Accelerates to 3.8% — The 5/19 NSC Is This Week's Top Catalyst
The oil price has already answered the question: WTI closed 5/18 at $103.45 with a $108.70 intraday spike as Persian Gulf energy facilities burn. Warsh confirmed 54-45, Powell stays as chair pro tempore, April CPI re-accelerates to +3.8% — and Tuesday's NSC meeting on Iran military…