Academy
The dot plot is a chart of Fed officials' interest rate forecasts, but it's often mistaken for a promise. Understanding the median, the longer-run rate, and Warsh's new changes is key to reading market reactions.
Academy
What is the FOMC meeting? 12 people vote on U.S. interest rates, the dot plot is just a forecast, don't be misled. Read this to understand rate-setting meetings.
Academy
What happens to stocks in a recession? The NBER's official criteria, the timing gap between stocks and the economy, defensive sectors, and the cost of selling everything—all explained clearly.
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What is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)? How does it affect U.S. stocks? This article explains DXY's composition, its relationship with the Fed, and its dual impact on U.S. stocks.
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Inflation vs. deflation: how they move the stock market. Mild inflation is good; runaway inflation and deflation are the real enemies. Understand CPI and Fed policy to see why stocks rise and fall.
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What is the Treasury yield? Why is the 10-year the anchor for global asset pricing? This plain-English guide explains the inverse relationship between yields and prices, the Fed's role, yield curve inversions, and how it all affects your mortgage and stocks.
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NFP is released on the first Friday of each month, but strong data doesn't necessarily mean stocks rise—the market trades on the 'expectation gap.' This article explains how NFP affects Fed rate cuts and your investments.
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What is CPI? Why does the U.S. stock market often swing wildly on release day? This article explains in plain language the differences between CPI, core CPI, and PCE, and why the market is so sensitive to 'beating expectations.'
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How do Fed rate hikes and cuts affect US stocks? From rates to valuations, from growth stocks to small caps, understand the power of the expectation gap in one article.
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Bond ETFs are not cash substitutes; they have no maturity date and their prices fluctuate with interest rates. When pairing them with stocks, know that stocks and bonds are not always negatively correlated.
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ETF dividends are legally required, not voluntary. But the tax rate depends on your holding period—do you know the 61-day rule?
Academy
DCA isn't a sure win, but it's the most suitable way for ordinary people to invest. A plain-English guide to DCA's principles, risks, and how to do it, with data from the SEC and Vanguard.