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The Fed just turned hawkish — now all eyes are on Friday's May PCE print. With half the dot plot penciling in a 2026 rate hike, this inflation gauge could reset the market's entire rate-path outlook.
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The US and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire on June 17 and Washington lifted its Strait of Hormuz blockade a day later, easing Middle East tensions and dragging crude oil down roughly 8% on the week. A Trump threat on June 21 sparked a brief intraday spike but didn't change the trend.
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The Fed held rates steady at Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair — but the dot plot told a different story, with half of all officials penciling in at least one hike this year. Stocks sold off hard before chips led a partial recovery.
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U.S. markets reopen Monday after the Juneteenth long weekend, with traders digesting fresh Iran rhetoric from Trump and last week's chip-led rally. The week's marquee events: FedEx earnings Tuesday, Micron Wednesday, and May PCE on Friday.
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Accenture cratered 18% on a revenue miss and guidance cut; Kroger slid 8% premarket despite beating the top line; Smith & Wesson surged nearly 20% on a blowout Q4. One earnings window, three very different market verdicts.
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Pakistan announced June 18 that the U.S.-Iran MOU means Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz "as soon as possible" and the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports lifts immediately. WTI crude dropped ~4% to $72.99, dragging energy stocks lower even as the broader market rallied.
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All three major indexes rebounded on June 18, with the Russell 2000 surging 2.12% to pace the rally and recoup a chunk of the prior day's Fed-driven selloff. Triple witching added to the day's volume; energy was the lone sector laggard.
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U.S. retail and food service sales hit $763.7 billion in May, jumping 0.9% month-over-month — nearly twice the 0.5% consensus. Gains were broad-based, though economists caution that tax-refund tailwinds are already fading.
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The Dow set its third consecutive intraday record on June 17 before reversing sharply after the Fed's hawkish dot plot signaled rate hikes ahead. All three major indexes closed deep in the red.
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Kevin Warsh chaired his first Fed meeting and kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% — but the real story was a dot plot that erased expected cuts and now leans toward a hike, paired with a stripped-down 130-word statement and the death of forward guidance.
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U.S. stocks split sharply on June 16: a wave of profit-taking hammered Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and AMD, pushing the Nasdaq down 1.15%, while the Dow climbed to a fresh record as money rotated into value and defensive plays.
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The Federal Reserve's two-day FOMC meeting kicked off Tuesday under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with the rate decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Markets are broadly pricing in a hold, even as inflation picks up and energy prices stay elevated.