Macro Outlook

ThesisMemo Research

ADP added only 38,000 jobs—but the rate debate did not get easier

Private employment undershot expectations while Treasury yields eased from multi-year highs. Softer hiring is colliding with energy-driven inflation risk ahead of the official payroll report.

ThesisMemo Research

Oil near $95 and a 4.78% Treasury yield are testing the equity rebound

U.S. futures were muted Thursday after technology shares lifted Wednesday’s session. Stable yields helped, but oil and geopolitical risk continue to raise the inflation hurdle.