Academy
What Is an Inverted Yield Curve? Understanding the Mechanics, Risks, and History
An inverted yield curve is an economic warning light, but don't treat it as a timer. This article explains the mechanics, history, and exceptions.
Latest
Academy
What Is the Fed's Dot Plot and How Do You Read It?
The dot plot is a chart of Fed officials' interest rate forecasts, but it's often mistaken for a promise. Understanding the median, the longer-run rate, and Warsh's new changes is key to reading market reactions.
Academy
What Is the FOMC Meeting? A Full Guide to the Fed's Rate Decisions
What is the FOMC meeting? 12 people vote on U.S. interest rates, the dot plot is just a forecast, don't be misled. Read this to understand rate-setting meetings.
Academy
Stocks in a Recession: How It Works, Warning Signs, and What to Do
What happens to stocks in a recession? The NBER's official criteria, the timing gap between stocks and the economy, defensive sectors, and the cost of selling everything—all explained clearly.
Academy
What Is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)? A Detailed Look at Its Relationship with U.S. Stocks
What is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)? How does it affect U.S. stocks? This article explains DXY's composition, its relationship with the Fed, and its dual impact on U.S. stocks.
Academy
Inflation vs. Deflation: How They Move the Stock Market—and Why Deflation Is Scarier
Inflation vs. deflation: how they move the stock market. Mild inflation is good; runaway inflation and deflation are the real enemies. Understand CPI and Fed policy to see why stocks rise and fall.
Academy
What Is the Treasury Yield? Why the 10-Year Matters So Much
What is the Treasury yield? Why is the 10-year the anchor for global asset pricing? This plain-English guide explains the inverse relationship between yields and prices, the Fed's role, yield curve inversions, and how it all affects your mortgage and stocks.
Academy
What Is the Nonfarm Payrolls Report? How Does It Affect the U.S. Stock Market?
NFP is released on the first Friday of each month, but strong data doesn't necessarily mean stocks rise—the market trades on the 'expectation gap.' This article explains how NFP affects Fed rate cuts and your investments.
Academy
What Is CPI? Why Does the U.S. Stock Market Swing Wildly on Release Day?
What is CPI? Why does the U.S. stock market often swing wildly on release day? This article explains in plain language the differences between CPI, core CPI, and PCE, and why the market is so sensitive to 'beating expectations.'
Academy
The Complete Guide to How Fed Rate Hikes and Cuts Affect US Stocks
How do Fed rate hikes and cuts affect US stocks? From rates to valuations, from growth stocks to small caps, understand the power of the expectation gap in one article.
Academy
What Is a Bond ETF? A Practical Guide to Pairing It with Stocks
Bond ETFs are not cash substitutes; they have no maturity date and their prices fluctuate with interest rates. When pairing them with stocks, know that stocks and bonds are not always negatively correlated.
Academy
What Are ETF Dividends? Payout Rules and Tax Details
ETF dividends are legally required, not voluntary. But the tax rate depends on your holding period—do you know the 61-day rule?